Bloomberg – Up to 9 percent plug-in by 2020, 22 percent by 2030

Tesla's Model S electric sedan

If battery costs can be cut significantly and coupled with increasing gas prices, Bloomberg New Energy Finance is forecasting that up to 9 percent of US auto sales could be made up of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles by 2020, increasing to 22 percent by 2030.

For comparison, last week JD Power predicted that hybrids and plug-ins combined would achieve just 7.3 percent penetration by 2020, with plug-ins making up 1.8 percent of the market.

On the other hand, PRTM estimates that by 2020 plug-ins will achieve between 9 and 11 percent market penetration, while hybrid vehicles will reach 20%.

My two cents

Several years ago JD Power predicted that hybrids would achieve up to 3 percent market share by 2010, a forecast that proved to be extremely reliable, while I forecast up to 10 percent or more. While I believe that hybrid and plug-in penetration should top 10 percent and push towards 20 percent – with hybrids taking the lion’s share – I wouldn’t bet against JD Power if odds were offered in Vegas.

Source: GreenCarCongress

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